Author: Walter Koroljow
Date: 04:22:03 01/12/01
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On January 11, 2001 at 20:58:34, Michael Neish wrote: > >Hi Dann, > >Defending the cause singlehanded ... that's very noble of you! :) > >Of course, being mathematically minded, I tend to favour your point of view. > >I was wondering, how many recent 40/2 games between computers and humans are >there? Is it possible to obtain a probability that the average computer rating >is as good as the average human rating for all these games, based on the humans' >Elo ratings? If so, then we could start embellishing our discussions with some >real values! > >Cheers, > >Mike. There is enough data. I posted a detailed analysis 9/5/00: http://site2936.dellhost.com/forums/1/message.shtml?128346. It turned out that I had incorrectly included the results of "Zugzwang" in the calculation. Here are the results without Zugzwang, posted in the same thread. If there is interest, I will re-post the analysis details. In the analysis, it is necessary to assume a spread of the ratings of the various hardware/software combinations that played the 157 games, hence the "spread" column. "Average Rating" is the average rating of all the hardware/software combinations that played. As can be seen from the results table, it really doesn't matter what is assumed. Here are the results: "Thank you for the link. It turns out that Zugzwang ran on a multi-processor Cray! Therefore, I have excluded it from consideration. That leaves 29 program/PC combinations that played 157 games (+73,=57,-27) for a score of 101.5-55.5 (64.6%) against opposition with an average rating of 2415. A single program with a rating of 2541 would be expected to achieve this score. Recalculating the confidence statistics, we get only minor changes: 95% Confidence Interval Spread of Ratings for Average Rating ----------------- ----------------------- 0 2502-2579 200 2502-2584 400 2503-2595. The conclusion stays the same: There is considerable confidence that the average rating of the programs in Chris' data running on 200MHz or faster PC-based computers is in the 2500's." Cheers, Walter
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