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Subject: Re: 6 game 40/2 COMP WINS just as i predicted!

Author: James T. Walker

Date: 07:43:33 01/12/01

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Well I've enjoyed the discussion with you but take a look at your arguments.
You want a mathmatical certainty that programs are GM strength but you can not
or will not define what that certainty is.  Because if you do you will be using
your own "Feelings" or common sense.  So you can never know with certainty
because you are afraid to rely on your own judgement.  You need a formula to
tell you what is true but your can't decide what you require of the formula.
You can't decide what the truth is.  Is it one standard deviation or is it two?
Do you need 68% or do you need even 99%.  What is the probability of the GM you
are comparing against being "on" his game when the computer is played?  There
are many variables and you want an exact answer.  Your math is failing you and
you can't decide for yourself.  You can't quantify the problem in exact figures
so you will never have an answer.  That is untill you decide to use your own
brain and judgement and forget about probability.  The answer is NOT in math.
It is in your own human ability to reason.  But mathematicians cannot deal with
that reality.
Jim



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