Author: Uri Blass
Date: 11:47:21 01/12/01
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On January 12, 2001 at 14:27:08, Dann Corbit wrote: >If the math says that it >is uncertain, then it is uncertain. To then claim that it is certain is >completly wrong. You will always be uncertain. It is always possible with probability that is more than 0 that a program that played random moves will lead the ssdf list. If you are sure in 99% you are also uncertain. The probability of confidence is based on some assumptions when the assumptions are wrong. Some examples for wrong assumptions that the ssdf use: 1)The result of games are independent events(false, programs learn). 2)The probability for white to win is the same as the probability of black to win(again false). > >> But mathematicians cannot deal with that reality. I agree that the reality is too complex and I know no good mathematical model to represent the reality so I prefer to trust my feeling about evaluating the level of chess programs. Without doing it I can only say that I know nothing and even do not know the level of confidence. Uri
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