Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 22:58:00 01/12/01
Go up one level in this thread
On January 13, 2001 at 01:39:49, Robin Smith wrote: [snip] >>All that having been said, they are very likely GM's. But it will be proven >>when it has been proven. Right now it isn't. > >"Proven when it has been proven", that is an intersting statement. It makes it >all sound so definate, precise and conclusive. But if it is so precise, what is >the definition of proven? The whole thing is actually quite silly, because it >takes something that is inheritantly probabilistic and tries to make it black or >white .... proven or unproven. Mathematically this isn't so simple as you seem >to imply. With the current number of games played, the error bar is hundreds of ELO wide, and the center is barely on GM level. If this were the level of certainty used to stop elevators or control heart machines, there would be dead people lying all over. My point is that the experimental evidence does not point to a sound decision. If someone tried to prove a hypothesis in a scientific journal with data that shaky they would be laughed out of town. Actually, it would never make it past peer review and get published. This is what is simple: The current data does not point to a reliable conclusion. With more data a reliable conclusion could be reached. The hypothesis cannot be concluded on the basis of the data at hand. All that having been said, the hypothesis is probably correct. But the current evidence is inadequate to say that it is proven. Well, sure, we won't ever have 100% reliable answers. But we can have *GOOD* answers. We don't have that right now -- not by a longshot.
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