Author: Hermano Ecuadoriano
Date: 11:55:14 01/17/01
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On January 17, 2001 at 11:33:25, Walter Koroljow wrote: >In September, I posted an analysis to the effect that the average rating of the >PC programs in Chris Carson's database was between 2502 and 2595 with more than >95% probability. > >After the Van der Wiel match, it is time for an update. The probability is over >95% that the average rating of the PC programs is between 2503 and 2594. The >spread has gone down a bit. > >Van der Wiel's rating is 2493. Therefore Rebel's performance rating for the >match was 2560 which lies in the middle of 2503 and 2594. Not much change could >be expected from this match, and there wasn't. > >I included all PCs running processors at or above 200MHz. This consisted of 30 >program/PC combinations playing 163 games (+73,=57,-27) for a score of 105-58 >(64.4%) against opposition with an average rating of 2418. > >VERY QUICK OVERVIEW OF CALCULATIONS: On 9/5/00 I posted >(http://site2936.dellhost.com/forums/1/message.shtml?128346) giving excruciating >detail on the calculations. This is an overview. The one major constant >assumption is that results of individual games are independent. The calculation >then assumes a trial average rating and a spread for the ratings. A Monte Carlo >simulation runs the 163 games one million times and computes the probabilities >of the results. If the probability calculated for what actually happened is >less than 5%, the trial mean and the spread can be rejected. Spreads from 0 to >400 were tried, and in all cases, averages below 2503 and above 2594 had to be >rejected. The effect of the spread was minimal. Thank you. My memory of the Monte Carlo method is dim, but according to my understanding this looks good. I wonder if our resident statistician is studying this? Would you comment on the appropriateness of the usual application of the binomial distribution to this material? "Statistics" makes a good partner with the "Humanities", for obvious reasons. (I'm sorry that I could not prove that its prominence in Physics is caused by bad epistemology.)
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