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Subject: Re: If 75 Games are not considered a Statistical proof, neither is the SSDF.

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 18:53:55 01/30/01

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On January 30, 2001 at 21:24:13, Robert Hyatt wrote:
[snip]
>I think that 1000 game match might well be way off from 50%.  IE it is not
>unlikely that one side will pull ahead a significant amount, and then they
>start playing equally for the rest of the match.  But there is nothing in
>statistics that says after you flip a coin and get 100 consecutive heads,
>that sometime later you will get 100 consecutive tails to offset them.  It
>is more likely that this series will simply end with heads being ahead 100
>counts...

You can have a bad run anywhere.  For instance, for two perfectly even engines,
one can win ten in a row [including against itself, for example].  The
probability of this happening right off the bat is identical to it happening one
million games into a very long trial.  Over a very long run, the bad runs will
cancel each other out (on average).  And if you have one after one million
games, 10/1000000 is a very small percentage so it won't hurt much.



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