Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 18:53:55 01/30/01
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On January 30, 2001 at 21:24:13, Robert Hyatt wrote: [snip] >I think that 1000 game match might well be way off from 50%. IE it is not >unlikely that one side will pull ahead a significant amount, and then they >start playing equally for the rest of the match. But there is nothing in >statistics that says after you flip a coin and get 100 consecutive heads, >that sometime later you will get 100 consecutive tails to offset them. It >is more likely that this series will simply end with heads being ahead 100 >counts... You can have a bad run anywhere. For instance, for two perfectly even engines, one can win ten in a row [including against itself, for example]. The probability of this happening right off the bat is identical to it happening one million games into a very long trial. Over a very long run, the bad runs will cancel each other out (on average). And if you have one after one million games, 10/1000000 is a very small percentage so it won't hurt much.
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