Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 12:37:21 01/31/01
Go up one level in this thread
On January 31, 2001 at 14:17:48, Bruce Moreland wrote:
[snip]
>If you start a match and get 10-0 right away, it proves that p is bigger, by any
>reasonable standard of proof.
And yet the SSDF has had matches start out that way which went to the other
opponent in the end (or something fairly close to that -- I forget the exact
figures for an O-fer reversal).
With chess, the odds of 0/10 for evenly matched chess engines is harder to
figure, but with a coin toss it is easy:
1/(2^10){all heads} + 1/(2^10){all tails} = 1/(2^9) = .2%
Hence, if you had one thousand people flip ten pennies, (on average) two of them
would get either all heads or all tails. The question is -- are you one of
those people when you run an experiment?
Improbable events do happen. That's why we buy fire insurance.
;-)
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