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Subject: Re: I'm wrong about 10-0 vs 60-40

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 17:44:54 01/31/01

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On January 31, 2001 at 20:17:17, Bruce Moreland wrote:

>I expressed very forcefully that a 10-0 result was more valid than a 60-40
>result.
>
>I've done some experimental tests and it appears that I'm wrong.
>
>I have no idea why.

Probably the model is too simple.  Since chess comes in won/loss/draw, it is
more difficult to achieve an accurate representation, perhaps.

Your model of the model that you programmed might also be wrong.
;-)

I use the Mersenne Twister PRNG for random simulations.  It has truly excellent
properties.

With a 10-0 result, the error bars will still be pretty enormous. Even at 60-40
they will be over 100 ELO, I imagine.  I would like to get a copy of your
simulation code to look it over, if you don't mind.  (I once ran imaginary coin
flips for 14 days on a PII 350 MHz).




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