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Subject: Re: I'm wrong about 10-0 vs 60-40

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 07:21:43 02/01/01

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On February 01, 2001 at 07:39:11, Leen Ammeraal wrote:

>On January 31, 2001 at 20:17:17, Bruce Moreland wrote:
>
>>I expressed very forcefully that a 10-0 result was more valid than a 60-40
>>result.
>>
>>I've done some experimental tests and it appears that I'm wrong.
>>
>>I have no idea why.
>>
>>bruce
>
>According to the little Windows app Whoisbetter by Steve Maugham,
>the certainty of being better for the winner is
>97% with the score 60 - 40, and
>99% with the score  7 -  0

It is clearly wrong.
The probablities that you talk about are not the probability that the winner is
better.

We cannot know the probability that the winner is better unless we have more
knowledge.

97% and 99% is what is called by statistics the level of confidence and the name
level of confidence is misleading.

You can be sure in 99% that the result betwenn *EQUAL* players is not 7-0 for
one of them.

Pay attention that we talk about *EQUAL* players and not about a case when one
is stronger.


Uri



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