Author: Andrew Dados
Date: 23:55:44 02/01/01
Go up one level in this thread
On February 01, 2001 at 10:21:43, Uri Blass wrote: >On February 01, 2001 at 07:39:11, Leen Ammeraal wrote: > >>On January 31, 2001 at 20:17:17, Bruce Moreland wrote: >> >>>I expressed very forcefully that a 10-0 result was more valid than a 60-40 >>>result. >>> >>>I've done some experimental tests and it appears that I'm wrong. >>> >>>I have no idea why. >>> >>>bruce >> >>According to the little Windows app Whoisbetter by Steve Maugham, >>the certainty of being better for the winner is >>97% with the score 60 - 40, and >>99% with the score 7 - 0 > >It is clearly wrong. >The probablities that you talk about are not the probability that the winner is >better. > >We cannot know the probability that the winner is better unless we have more >knowledge. We can calculate this and if we disregard draws the chance that winner of 60-40 is better is indeed 97.4%. If we count-in draws to the model, then at 50% chance of draw between equal players (see my post above) the above number goes up to 99.6% (!). How can you calculate this: for each possible rating difference calculate probability of 60-40 score then normalize factorial of that to 1 (100%). -Andrew- > >97% and 99% is what is called by statistics the level of confidence and the name >level of confidence is misleading. > >You can be sure in 99% that the result betwenn *EQUAL* players is not 7-0 for >one of them. > >Pay attention that we talk about *EQUAL* players and not about a case when one >is stronger. > > >Uri
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