Author: Andrew Dados
Date: 10:58:11 02/04/01
I decided to find out 'true chance' of draw outcome from real games. The below is summarized output from my twic game files. Rdiff means difference of players ratings in the (range, range+25). Integrestingly around range of 0 draws approaches 50% and better won about 25%. Now if you take 2 tosses of coin you'll get total score of 2 heads in 25%, 1 head in 50% and 0 heads in 25%... files: 176 games: 170464 decisive (counted) : 128803 Rdiff+ games %draws %better won ======================================= 0 14480 48.82 25.67 25 15365 46.57 31.45 50 15784 44.60 35.52 75 15429 41.80 39.62 100 14092 38.68 44.26 125 12121 35.08 49.18 150 9926 31.92 54.47 175 8129 28.34 58.89 200 6478 25.39 63.71 225 4707 22.82 67.94 250 3443 20.65 69.82 275 2575 18.45 73.67 300 1879 15.59 77.38 325 1370 15.62 78.83 350 970 10.52 85.46 375 687 9.32 86.90 400 453 7.06 89.18 Is one chess game statistically equivalent of 2 coin tosses? :) -Andrew-
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