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Subject: Re: I'm wrong about 10-0 vs 60-40

Author: Walter Koroljow

Date: 15:36:22 02/04/01

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Bruce,

I am glad you are willing to do something constructive. I am coming into this
thread at this point, so forgive me if I do not fully understand the context.

As I understand it, you want to measure things that are difficult to measure --
e.g., whether your latest small change added a rating point to your program.
You also want to minimize testing time.  To me this seems crucial for a chess
programmer.

This seems to be a case for sequential testing.  I have an old "Handbook of
Probability and Statistics" open in front of me.  Let me give you two quotes
from the sequential testing section.

"Sequential tests are frequently more economical than non-sequential tests,
especially if the number of trials is readily changed...  Oftentimes the number
of trials called for in a sequential test of a given reliability is considerably
less than the number of trials required by the corresponding non-sequential
test."

"In a sequential test, certain calculations are made after each trial...the
hypothesis is accepted or rejected as soon as it appears that the available data
are adequate for making a decision..."

This is probably what you are doing already, but the theory will give you a
quantitative criterion for stopping testing.

You might consider looking at the subject in a reference book or textbook, and
seeing if you are comfortable with it.

Incidentally, I would be glad to help with the analysis (if you wanted help),
time permitting. I have a Ph.D in mathematical physics, the math courses for a
Masters, and have been producing systems that measure hard to measure things for
a living for 30 years.  For example, my system (all design and analyses done by
me) is the only system that can, and routinely does, measure the (miniscule)
noise of the Seawolf submarine. So, I have done a few dozen statistical studies
professionally.

Anyway, best of luck.

Walter



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