Author: Walter Koroljow
Date: 15:41:45 02/04/01
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On February 04, 2001 at 14:16:19, Vincent Diepeveen wrote: >On February 04, 2001 at 14:11:19, Hermano Ecuadoriano wrote: > >>On February 04, 2001 at 13:58:11, Andrew Dados wrote: >> >>> >>>I decided to find out 'true chance' of draw outcome from real games. >>>The below is summarized output from my twic game files. >>>Rdiff means difference of players ratings in the (range, range+25). >>>Integrestingly around range of 0 draws approaches 50% and better won about 25%. >>> >>>Now if you take 2 tosses of coin you'll get total score of 2 heads in 25%, 1 >>>head in 50% and 0 heads in 25%... >>> >>> >>> files: 176 games: 170464 decisive (counted) : 128803 >>> >>>Rdiff+ games %draws %better won >>>======================================= >>>0 14480 48.82 25.67 >>>25 15365 46.57 31.45 >>>50 15784 44.60 35.52 >>>75 15429 41.80 39.62 >>>100 14092 38.68 44.26 >>>125 12121 35.08 49.18 >>>150 9926 31.92 54.47 >>>175 8129 28.34 58.89 >>>200 6478 25.39 63.71 >>>225 4707 22.82 67.94 >>>250 3443 20.65 69.82 >>>275 2575 18.45 73.67 >>>300 1879 15.59 77.38 >>>325 1370 15.62 78.83 >>>350 970 10.52 85.46 >>>375 687 9.32 86.90 >>>400 453 7.06 89.18 >>> >>>Is one chess game statistically equivalent of 2 coin tosses? :) >>> >>>-Andrew- >> >>This is good data to look at. >>But you need another dimension: either rating mean, or the rating of the >>higher rated player. I suggest the mean. >>Then, having a table like the above for every rating level, somebody can >>curve-fit the thing. >> >>These databases are something else that ELO didn't have. > >Exactly, there is a big difference from below 2000 and above 2000 >as K factor gets for FIDE rating from 25 down to 15 down to 10. > >Nevertheless good work from Andrew!! I also agree. But thank you for great data. What are "twic files"? Is this all human data? Cheers, Walter
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