Author: Ralf Elvsén
Date: 15:54:47 02/04/01
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On February 04, 2001 at 13:58:11, Andrew Dados wrote: > >I decided to find out 'true chance' of draw outcome from real games. >The below is summarized output from my twic game files. >Rdiff means difference of players ratings in the (range, range+25). >Integrestingly around range of 0 draws approaches 50% and better won about 25%. > >Now if you take 2 tosses of coin you'll get total score of 2 heads in 25%, 1 >head in 50% and 0 heads in 25%... > > > files: 176 games: 170464 decisive (counted) : 128803 > >Rdiff+ games %draws %better won >======================================= >0 14480 48.82 25.67 >25 15365 46.57 31.45 >50 15784 44.60 35.52 >75 15429 41.80 39.62 >100 14092 38.68 44.26 >125 12121 35.08 49.18 >150 9926 31.92 54.47 >175 8129 28.34 58.89 >200 6478 25.39 63.71 >225 4707 22.82 67.94 >250 3443 20.65 69.82 >275 2575 18.45 73.67 >300 1879 15.59 77.38 >325 1370 15.62 78.83 >350 970 10.52 85.46 >375 687 9.32 86.90 >400 453 7.06 89.18 > >Is one chess game statistically equivalent of 2 coin tosses? :) > >-Andrew- Goto http://math.bu.edu/INDIVIDUAL/mg/ratings.html There is a link to a graph showing the draw frequency for players within 100 rating points as a function of their rating. Interesting... Ralf
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