Author: Andrew Dados
Date: 06:24:42 02/05/01
Go up one level in this thread
On February 04, 2001 at 18:41:45, Walter Koroljow wrote: >On February 04, 2001 at 14:16:19, Vincent Diepeveen wrote: > >>On February 04, 2001 at 14:11:19, Hermano Ecuadoriano wrote: >> >>>On February 04, 2001 at 13:58:11, Andrew Dados wrote: >>> >>>> >>>>I decided to find out 'true chance' of draw outcome from real games. >>>>The below is summarized output from my twic game files. >>>>Rdiff means difference of players ratings in the (range, range+25). >>>>Integrestingly around range of 0 draws approaches 50% and better won about 25%. >>>> >>>>Now if you take 2 tosses of coin you'll get total score of 2 heads in 25%, 1 >>>>head in 50% and 0 heads in 25%... >>>> >>>> >>>> files: 176 games: 170464 decisive (counted) : 128803 >>>> >>>>Rdiff+ games %draws %better won >>>>======================================= >>>>0 14480 48.82 25.67 >>>>25 15365 46.57 31.45 >>>>50 15784 44.60 35.52 >>>>75 15429 41.80 39.62 >>>>100 14092 38.68 44.26 >>>>125 12121 35.08 49.18 >>>>150 9926 31.92 54.47 >>>>175 8129 28.34 58.89 >>>>200 6478 25.39 63.71 >>>>225 4707 22.82 67.94 >>>>250 3443 20.65 69.82 >>>>275 2575 18.45 73.67 >>>>300 1879 15.59 77.38 >>>>325 1370 15.62 78.83 >>>>350 970 10.52 85.46 >>>>375 687 9.32 86.90 >>>>400 453 7.06 89.18 >>>> >>>>Is one chess game statistically equivalent of 2 coin tosses? :) >>>> >>>>-Andrew- >>> >>>This is good data to look at. >>>But you need another dimension: either rating mean, or the rating of the >>>higher rated player. I suggest the mean. >>>Then, having a table like the above for every rating level, somebody can >>>curve-fit the thing. >>> >>>These databases are something else that ELO didn't have. >> >>Exactly, there is a big difference from below 2000 and above 2000 >>as K factor gets for FIDE rating from 25 down to 15 down to 10. >> >>Nevertheless good work from Andrew!! > >I also agree. > >But thank you for great data. > >What are "twic files"? Is this all human data? > >Cheers, > >Walter 'The Win at Chess' url: http://www.chesscenter.com/twic/twic.html Every week they put together a very sensible pgn file of recent events. Since I don't have a decent database around here, I choose twics files from last 3 years+. I expect very few duplicates there and no bogus data. And about 2/3 of game scores have rating info assigned. And yes, those games are all human-human (with few human-comp exceptions and maybe last wccc included, not sure of that). Good and bad is structure of ratings - most games published there are between players above 2200 elo. -Andrew-
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