Author: Andrew Dados
Date: 07:13:01 02/05/01
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On February 05, 2001 at 09:49:27, Günther Simon wrote: >On February 04, 2001 at 13:58:11, Andrew Dados wrote: > >> >>I decided to find out 'true chance' of draw outcome from real games. >>The below is summarized output from my twic game files. >>Rdiff means difference of players ratings in the (range, range+25). >>Integrestingly around range of 0 draws approaches 50% and better won about 25%. >> >>Now if you take 2 tosses of coin you'll get total score of 2 heads in 25%, 1 >>head in 50% and 0 heads in 25%... >> >> >> files: 176 games: 170464 decisive (counted) : 128803 >> >>Rdiff+ games %draws %better won >>======================================= >>0 14480 48.82 25.67 >>25 15365 46.57 31.45 >>50 15784 44.60 35.52 >>75 15429 41.80 39.62 >>100 14092 38.68 44.26 >>125 12121 35.08 49.18 >>150 9926 31.92 54.47 >>175 8129 28.34 58.89 >>200 6478 25.39 63.71 >>225 4707 22.82 67.94 >>250 3443 20.65 69.82 >>275 2575 18.45 73.67 >>300 1879 15.59 77.38 >>325 1370 15.62 78.83 >>350 970 10.52 85.46 >>375 687 9.32 86.90 >>400 453 7.06 89.18 >> >>Is one chess game statistically equivalent of 2 coin tosses? :) >> >>-Andrew- > >There is something in this statistics which makes me get headaches >because it has not much to do with chess. >The point is in the mass of draws "played" in just a few moves sometimes >even in zero moves!! There are several reasons for this behaviour like >knowing the opponent very well,sharing at least prices,being exhausted >after a long tournament and some others... >But will this games not going to falsify the statistics?! >I presume that in all kind of huge collections of chessgames nowadays are >a terribly lot of such "games".(For my original Bigbase of CB I know this) >For myself I decided long time ago to delete all drawn games under move 9 >or 10 in my database well knowing that this is just kind of difficult >compromise. >But the question is how can I trust the statistics e.g. in showing the >winning percentage of different opening variations or cant I trust >statistics of that kind anyway? You have a point here indeed. For me however the question is not really 'exactness' of game scores, but 'trend'. I am curious how can I include draws in statistical modelling to get them close to reality. No matter how I do it I get much higher 'confidence' then without them (See Bruces concerns in '60-40' thread somewhere below). I am becoming convinced that just existence of 3-state score raises confidence of performance ratings above usually applied 'win-loss' model. -Andrew-
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