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Subject: Re: Deep Fritz vs Nimzo8 G\25 Final Score with modified Settings W20 L18 D12

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 04:05:13 02/23/01

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On February 23, 2001 at 06:02:55, Jorge Pichard wrote:

>On February 23, 2001 at 05:54:17, Jorge Pichard wrote:
>
>>On February 23, 2001 at 05:49:16, Jorge Pichard wrote:
>>
>>>With the best settings available for Nimzo 8 (Middlegame Mobility 55 and Style
>>>Allaround) instead of the default settings using my Athlon 800 MHz it seems to
>>>me that Nimzo 8 strength could be improved by as much as 30 points compared to
>>>its default settings.  Dr.Chrilly you should take note of this and if is not too
>>>late, please modified Nimzo 8 settings for the remaining of the ICCP match.
>>I forgot to mention that Deep Fritz won the match, but it was not as bad as it
>>would have been with its default settings.
>I also understand that according to Christophe 50 games is not enough to proof
>anything, that I need at least 200 or more games, but I don't need 200 rounds to
>be beating by Mike Tyson, 10 rounds is sufficient for two professional boxers
>and in my case I might last 10 rounds if I train hard enough to run for 10
>rounds.

The number of games that you need is not constant and is dependent in the
result.

I guess that everyone will agree in cases that original nimzo8 is losing 50-0
against Deep Fritz when new Nimzo8 is winning 50-0 against Deep Fritz that 50
games is more than enough to be convinced that the new setting is better.

I do not think that you can claim that the new nimzo is  better than the old
nimzo based on only one opponent and I think that you need to test both nimzo
against many programs because it is possible that one setting is 30 elo better
against Deep Fritz but 30 elo worse against another program.

30 elo difference is a small number and 50 games are usually not enough to know
which version is 30 elo better.

You can have a big probability to be wrong if you try to claim things like it
based on only 50 games(I guess that if the difference is 30 elo then you have
probability of about 30-40% to be wrong in saying which program is better based
on 50 games of both programs against Deep Fritz but I did not calculate it)

Uri



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