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Subject: Re: More doubts with gandalf

Author: Peter Berger

Date: 09:21:00 02/26/01

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On February 26, 2001 at 08:09:24, Frank Phillips wrote:

<snip>

>Knowledge presumably takes cpu cycles to process, so faster machines help?
>
>If we had 32 man EGTBs, there would be absolute knowledge, no search and no
>chess rule of thumb knowledge of the type discussed.
>
>Presumably chess knowledge just encapsulates guiding principles for those
>position, which if we had enough searching power (or EGTB) we could prove were
>won, lost or drawn.
>

It seems to be a very common belief that with 32men EGTBs chess is solved ; I
haven't been able to understand this point of view so far .

Availlable data and also intuition suggest that chess is a draw .

It might be the case that every white first move draws ( at least that's my
belief ) .

I even believe that every black answer to every move of White leads to a draw .

Now let's take this "perfect" program ( " ... absolute knowledge, no search and
no chess rule of thumb knowledge of the type discussed ..." )and create a little
challenge :

This program , let's call it "Perfect" has to play against a group of strong
Super GM players ( like in a typical Linares tournament ) .

It randomly chooses one of the "perfect" moves availlable . How will it perform
? It won't lose a single game : that's obvious . But how many games will it win
? I suspect it will draw quite a few ; the move winning a piece but by some
miracle allowing the opponent to escape will have the same probability than the
move blundering a piece and letting "Perfect" escape in the last moment .

As control group for "Perfect" I choose Kasparov who has to play against the
same gang of masters ; I think it is very likely that he will perfom better and
gain more points than "Perfect" that suddenly won't look that perfect anymore .

In fact this effect can be clearly observed today already IMHO ; take a critical
drawn tablebase position and play it on the weaker side against a typical
chessprogram that uses tablebases ; you will often have a much easier time
getting a draw ( as for example in KRP-KR it will simply sack the pawn ( a
"perfect" move )) compaired to playing against it with tablebases disabled . I
have seen _many_ games where the tablebase program let the opponent escape in a
much easier draw .

So without something like a "swindle" mode I am not sure that it is beneficial
to even use the TBs if you are on the stronger side in a drawn tablebase
position .

pete




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