Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 11:59:18 03/16/01
Go up one level in this thread
On March 16, 2001 at 00:20:51, Roy Beam wrote: [snip] > I think it is a fact that no 2500 player could ever beat garry kasparov in a >match short of him falling dead at the board. You think incorrectly. According to: http://www.fide.org/fide/html/top32.html Kasparov's ELO is: 2849 2849-2500 is: 349 The win expectency for a difference of 349 points is 0.118261 Here is an interesting table: Win expectency for a difference of 0 points is 0.5 Win expectency for a difference of 100 points is 0.359935 Win expectency for a difference of 200 points is 0.240253 Win expectency for a difference of 300 points is 0.15098 Win expectency for a difference of 400 points is 0.0909091 Win expectency for a difference of 500 points is 0.0532402 Win expectency for a difference of 600 points is 0.0306534 Win expectency for a difference of 700 points is 0.0174721 Win expectency for a difference of 800 points is 0.00990099 Win expectency for a difference of 900 points is 0.00559197 Win expectency for a difference of 1000 points is 0.00315231 Therefore, an opponent of ELO 2500 will win a shocking 11% of the points in a match with Garry Kasparov. Now, I suspect that most of those points will be from draws. But definitely, given enough chances, some 2500 ELO person will win. Say... What's this? [Event "????"] [Site "New York"] [Date "1997.??.??"] [Round "?"] [White "Kasparov, G"] [Black "Wong, C"] [Result "0-1"] [WhiteElo "2820"] [BlackElo "2185"] [ECO "D11"] [Opening "QGD Slav"] [Variation "3.Nf3"] 1. Nf3 d5 2. c4 c6 3. d4 e6 4. cxd5 cxd5 5. Nc3 Nc6 6. e4 dxe4 7. Nxe4 Nf6 8. Nxf6+ Qxf6 9. Bd3 h6 10. Bd2 Qd8 11. Rc1 Be7 12. Qa4 Bd7 13. Be2 a6 14. O-O O-O 15. Qb3 Qc7 16. Ne5 Bd6 17. Bf3 Rfc8 18. Rfe1 a5 19. Bxc6 Bxc6 20. Bf4 a4 21. Qe3 Bxe5 22. Bxe5 Qe7 23. Qc3 Qg5 24. f3 Bd5 25. Qxc8+ Rxc8 26. Rxc8+ Kh7 27. Rc2 Bxa2 28. Bg3 b5 29. Kh1 Bc4 30. Rec1 f6 31. f4 Qf5 32. h3 h5 33. Kh2 Qd5 34. Bf2 Qd6 35. g3 h4 36. Rc3 hxg3+ 37. Kxg3 g5 38. Be3 gxf4+ 39. Bxf4 Qxd4 40. h4 e5 41. Be3 Qe4 42. h5 f5 43. Bc5 Qg4+ 44. Kf2 Qxh5 45. Kg2 Qg4+ 46. Kh2 Qf4+ 47. Kg1 e4 48. Kh1 Qh4+ 49. Kg2 Qg5+ 50. Kh2 Qf4+ 51. Kh1 Kg7 52. Rd1 Bd3 53. Bd4+ Kf7 54. Rdc1 Qf3+ 55. Kh2 Qf4+ 56. Kh1 Qh4+ 57. Kg1 Qg3+ 58. Kh1 f4 59. b4 axb3 60. Rxb3 f3 61. Rb2 Be2 62. Rxe2 fxe2 0-1 Never say never. Oops. I just said it. Twice.
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