Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 12:05:07 04/02/01
Go up one level in this thread
On April 02, 2001 at 11:18:17, Vincent Diepeveen wrote: >On April 02, 2001 at 00:28:42, Uri Blass wrote: > >>On April 01, 2001 at 18:42:27, Vincent Diepeveen wrote: >> >>>On April 01, 2001 at 11:00:11, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>> >>>>On March 31, 2001 at 21:13:22, Torstein Hall wrote: >>>> >>>>>I do not think IBM stand to loose anytihing. The big public has forgotten that >>>>>Deep Blue ever existed! Anyway, I feel the marketing value of DB is low nopw, so >>>>>perhaps someone with a few extra bucks to spare can buy DB now? >>>>> >>>>>Torstein >>>>> >>>>>Was it really a monster playing chess named DB? >>>> >>>> >>>>I think you are _way_ wrong. I just got back from a visit to my home >>>>town with a population of about 1,500 people. I wore a T-shirt that Compaq >>>>sent me (they took Crafty + an alpha, to the Linux expo, and let anyone play >>>>it). The shirt had "I survive the compaq computer chess challenge" on the >>>>back. Several people asked me "hey, how would your program do against IBM's >>>>monster?" >>>> >>>>People remember deep blue. Because _I_ didn't mention it at all. If you ask >>>>100 random people about the best chess player, human or machine, more people >>>>will remember the name "deep blue" than "kasparov". >>> >>>Exactly. >>> >>>So if they lose a match they might lose a market share and a lot of >>>'deep blue' quotes. The possible market share they might lose is >>>worth 37 billion at wall street and it's worth a lot of PR too. >> >>I do not believe it. >>Bruce explained that your math is wrong. > >Even if you do not believe it, >would you take the risk as IBM manager? > >>Uri Sometimes you have to take a risk. On occasion you take a risk that might lose a _lot_ of money. I tend to avoid these. On other occasions you take a risk that isn't going to lose much, and might win a _lot_. I might tend to take that kind of risk. Sort of like a slot machine. I might be tempted to drop in a quarter as I walk by one in a casino. But I am not going to be tempted to wager $100,000 on a single hand of poker. If the potential loss is outweighted by the potential gain, then yes I would take the risk. IBM did this with the original deep blue project, as nobody knew whether a machine would ever be able to beat the world champion. The risk paid off. It might well pay off again...
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