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Subject: Re: IBM would risk 37 billion dollar

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 12:05:07 04/02/01

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On April 02, 2001 at 11:18:17, Vincent Diepeveen wrote:

>On April 02, 2001 at 00:28:42, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>>On April 01, 2001 at 18:42:27, Vincent Diepeveen wrote:
>>
>>>On April 01, 2001 at 11:00:11, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>
>>>>On March 31, 2001 at 21:13:22, Torstein Hall wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>I do not think IBM stand to loose anytihing. The big public has forgotten that
>>>>>Deep Blue ever existed! Anyway, I feel the marketing value of DB is low nopw, so
>>>>>perhaps someone with a few extra bucks to spare can buy DB now?
>>>>>
>>>>>Torstein
>>>>>
>>>>>Was it really a monster playing chess named DB?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>I think you are _way_ wrong.  I just got back from a visit to my home
>>>>town with a population of about 1,500 people.  I wore a T-shirt that Compaq
>>>>sent me (they took Crafty + an alpha, to the Linux expo, and let anyone play
>>>>it).  The shirt had "I survive the compaq computer chess challenge" on the
>>>>back.  Several people asked me "hey, how would your program do against IBM's
>>>>monster?"
>>>>
>>>>People remember deep blue.  Because _I_ didn't mention it at all.  If you ask
>>>>100 random people about the best chess player, human or machine, more people
>>>>will remember the name "deep blue" than "kasparov".
>>>
>>>Exactly.
>>>
>>>So if they lose a match they might lose a market share and a lot of
>>>'deep blue' quotes. The possible market share they might lose is
>>>worth 37 billion at wall street and it's worth a lot of PR too.
>>
>>I do not believe it.
>>Bruce explained that your math is wrong.
>
>Even if you do not believe it,
>would you take the risk as IBM manager?
>
>>Uri


Sometimes you have to take a risk.  On occasion you take a risk that might
lose a _lot_ of money.  I tend to avoid these.  On other occasions you take a
risk that isn't going to lose much, and might win a _lot_.  I might tend to
take that kind of risk.  Sort of like a slot machine.  I might be tempted to
drop in a quarter as I walk by one in a casino.  But I am not going to be
tempted to wager $100,000 on a single hand of poker.

If the potential loss is outweighted by the potential gain, then yes I would
take the risk.  IBM did this with the original deep blue project, as nobody
knew whether a machine would ever be able to beat the world champion.  The risk
paid off.  It might well pay off again...



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