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Subject: Bernoulli trials, Binomial and Trinomial Distribution Formulae ?!

Author: guy haworth

Date: 10:46:22 04/25/01


A game of chess is a 'Bernoulli trial' in a sequence of say 'n' trials.

One side's score after 'n' trials is a random-variable X.

If chess was a win/lose 2-outcome trial, one could dial straight into the theory
of binomial and normal distributions and pick up info about the variance of the
score after 'n' trials.

Unfortunately, it is a three-outcome trial ... win/draw/lose ...

Question is ... is there an equivalent neat formula about the variance of the
score after 'n' trials ... assuming 1 for win, 0.5 for draw, 0 for loss of
course.

... or is this like asking for the formula for the three-body problem just
because we can do the two-body problem?

G



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