Author: guy haworth
Date: 10:46:22 04/25/01
A game of chess is a 'Bernoulli trial' in a sequence of say 'n' trials. One side's score after 'n' trials is a random-variable X. If chess was a win/lose 2-outcome trial, one could dial straight into the theory of binomial and normal distributions and pick up info about the variance of the score after 'n' trials. Unfortunately, it is a three-outcome trial ... win/draw/lose ... Question is ... is there an equivalent neat formula about the variance of the score after 'n' trials ... assuming 1 for win, 0.5 for draw, 0 for loss of course. ... or is this like asking for the formula for the three-body problem just because we can do the two-body problem? G
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