Author: Peter Berger
Date: 13:27:00 04/30/01
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On April 30, 2001 at 13:20:33, stuart taylor wrote: >I feel It's just a bit tooo inconsistent now. First 5 straight wins for DJ, then >nothing like it again, and even 3 straight wins for DF. >There must be something wrong somewhere! >People can say calmly "that's ok! nothing to worry about! It's quite normal!" >OR perhaps, chess is really a game of luck!!! >OK, if its proven beyond doubt that all this was the way things go, without any >imballance or bug because of things like learning, autoplayer etc. that's fine. >But I would like to see it investigated fully. > Unless it was that the first 5 games were openings which were advantageous to >DJ, but having "learned" them, DF was now well protected from these Junior >tricks. Could that be the case? >S.Taylor Hi Stuart , I am sure few will agree to you here at CCC ;-) . Anyway if we look at the series and the games ; let's assume a few things : a.) The programs are about equal in strength ( simplifies the matter and won't be too far off ) b.) Draws and wins for either program are equally probable ( won't be too far off either if we look at the data ) . c.) The games are indepedent events ( again this is a simplification but looking at the games suggests this isn't too far off either ) . OK ; so now let's calculate : Given the fact that we know one program won the first 5 games how probable is it that this program will only lead 11.5-10.5 after 22 games ? Ouch - quite easy maths that is ( a statistical sidenode : it isn't a correct assumption to compair this to a 50 games match where at _some_ point in the match a 5 games series appeared IMHO ) It's very much possible that there is nothing wrong at all . But if I were the one in charge of the games I'd definitely double- or triple-check if everything is OK if I observed a scoresheet like this one - just to be sure .. Greetings. pete
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