Author: Uri Blass
Date: 16:02:27 04/30/01
Go up one level in this thread
On April 30, 2001 at 18:48:55, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On April 30, 2001 at 18:28:56, John Merlino wrote: > >>On April 30, 2001 at 15:43:56, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On April 30, 2001 at 13:20:33, stuart taylor wrote: >>> >>>>I feel It's just a bit tooo inconsistent now. First 5 straight wins for DJ, then >>>>nothing like it again, and even 3 straight wins for DF. >>>>There must be something wrong somewhere! >>>>People can say calmly "that's ok! nothing to worry about! It's quite normal!" >>>>OR perhaps, chess is really a game of luck!!! >>>>OK, if its proven beyond doubt that all this was the way things go, without any >>>>imballance or bug because of things like learning, autoplayer etc. that's fine. >>>>But I would like to see it investigated fully. >>>> Unless it was that the first 5 games were openings which were advantageous to >>>>DJ, but having "learned" them, DF was now well protected from these Junior >>>>tricks. Could that be the case? >>>>S.Taylor >>> >>> >>>Pick any two programs. Play 50 games. You will find at _least_ one place >>>where each won 5 games in a row. There is absolutely nothing unusual about >>>this. >> >>Of course, you mean two theoretically equal programs (and do you also assume >>that there are no draws?). And, just to test this, I just looked at the results >>of a few 100-game matches, and there was only one instance of a program winning >>four in a row. There were no five win sequences. There were MANY sequences in >>which White won four in a row, though. > >I was not ignoring draws... and even with two programs that are 100 points >different is skill, I have seen the weaker win 5 in a row in a reasonable >match... It is not common Junior was 3 times black in the first 5 games. If you assume 30% chances for black to win and 40% chances for white to win you get probability of less than 0.5% for Junior to win the first 5 games. The probability that one of the program wins games 1-5 is 0.4^2*0.3^3+0.4^3*0.3^2=0.00432+0.00576=0.0108 The probability that one of the programs win games 2-6 is also 0.0108 ... The probability that one of the programs win games 46-50 is also 0.0108 Conclusion: The probability of the union of these 46 events is less than 0.0108*46 It means that the probability to get 5 wins in a row for one side if you play 50 games is less than 50%. Uri
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