Author: Chris Carson
Date: 11:21:18 05/02/01
Go up one level in this thread
On May 02, 2001 at 14:09:53, Dann Corbit wrote: >On May 02, 2001 at 13:48:04, Chris Carson wrote: > >>I would like to hear from the CCC group how much K will >>gain from having the program for 3 months. In my view, >>an advantage yes, but maybe not as much as I thought at >>first. >> >>1. K may not have the HW for the match. >>2. To get a real feel for Fritz 7 he will need the HW and >> play 40/2 games. >>3. K has to prepare for other opponents for matches and >> tournaments, I think this will be a higher priority for K. >>4. K has other commitments than just matches and tournaments that >> will also be a higher priority. >>5. K may gain a sense of how Fritz should play at any given time, >> and may be over confident by match time. >> >>None of the above are guaranteed, but in my opinion, lots of games at >>fast time controls is not the same as 40/2 on the real HW. Also, my >>guess is that K will play some each week against what ever version of >>Fritz he gets, but each will be slightly different (ala play different >>versions of crafty with slightly different books) and not the same. >> >>Any thoughts. >> >>I do think this gives K a huge advantage, I am just not sure he will >>have the time to fully utilize it. Just some thoughts. ;) >> >>My guess now: K wins 6.5-3.5 with a couple of surprises by both >>and a couple of blunders by both. ;) > >I don't think he would just try random openings or something silly like that. >He will aim for strategies. In other words: > >1. Will it fall to a giant material imbalance? >2. Will it fall to blocked pawn formations? Can these formations be easily >created and if so, in what manner? >3. Will it have a NULL move blindside that is repeatable? >4. Are there early positional moves it will not understand? > >That sort of stuff. Armed with data like that, I don't think you could give >them a larger advantage. I don't think GM's have worked very hard at beating >computers. What I mean is, they try to beat them conventionally. I suspect >that if they carefully studied Raphael Vasques' Anticomputer site, their ELO >against the machines would instantly go up 100 points. And if they worked on >anticomputer strategies it would go up another 100 points. And if they spend >three months preparing for a specific opponent, it will go up another 100 >points. You might imagine that they already do this stuff. However, I have had >email conversations with GM's after they engaged in high-profile matches against >computers. I was surprised to learn that some are actually unaware of the value >of closed formations and some of the basic anticomputer strategies. I agree with you Dann, that represents the upper bound for Kramnik and doom for Fritz. It may come to pass if Kramnik fully takes advantage of everything and the Fritz programmers have no surprises for him. I am not convinced that Kramnik will devote as much time preparing for the computer (as you pointed out that other GM's have not) that is afforded to him and I also think the Fritz programmers may have a wrinkle or two for him. This will make no difference in the outcome. Kramnik will win big, but it may not be a blow out like 10-0 or 9-1 or 8-2. Kramnik starts with about 100 pt ratings advantage. Give 300 more as you have pointed out and that is 400 points (maybe more). Thus you would expect 9-1 or better for Kramnik. 2 or more points for Fritz would have to be considered an accomplishment. Agree or Disagree? :) Best Regards, Chris Carson
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