Author: Albert Silver
Date: 12:06:09 05/02/01
Go up one level in this thread
On May 02, 2001 at 13:48:04, Chris Carson wrote:
>I would like to hear from the CCC group how much K will
>gain from having the program for 3 months. In my view,
>an advantage yes, but maybe not as much as I thought at
>first.
>
>1. K may not have the HW for the match.
>2. To get a real feel for Fritz 7 he will need the HW and
> play 40/2 games.
Yes. No. Getting a powerful dual is well within his means, and you must ask
yourself, just how much stronger DF would get running on an 8-way box. Will the
extra speed be so significant against Kramnik? This isn't a comp-comp match
where a ply's difference is generally decisive.
>3. K has to prepare for other opponents for matches and
> tournaments, I think this will be a higher priority for K.
>4. K has other commitments than just matches and tournaments that
> will also be a higher priority.
Whoa.... I don't know about that. How many other commitments on his schedule
have a million dollar purse? The difference between losing and winning is stated
to be at $400,000. I would be enormously surprised if he dismissed that
off-hand.
>5. K may gain a sense of how Fritz should play at any given time,
> and may be over confident by match time.
I think that would be to greatly underestimate Kramnik. He isn't Kasparov, and I
have never heard of him arriving overconfident at any event or match. Kasparov
certainly suffered from this affliction, but this would be a new one for
Kramnik.
>
>None of the above are guaranteed, but in my opinion, lots of games at
>fast time controls is not the same as 40/2 on the real HW. Also, my
>guess is that K will play some each week against what ever version of
>Fritz he gets, but each will be slightly different (ala play different
>versions of crafty with slightly different books) and not the same.
I understood he was to get a copy of the engine, not the opening book. I doubt
very much he will be relying on the opening book to make his preparations. he is
a master opening strategist as his famous match against Kasaprov showed, and I'm
sure he will rely on his own judgement in this regard.
>
>Any thoughts.
>
>I do think this gives K a huge advantage, I am just not sure he will
>have the time to fully utilize it. Just some thoughts. ;)
>
>My guess now: K wins 6.5-3.5 with a couple of surprises by both
>and a couple of blunders by both. ;)
>
>Best Regards,
>Chris Carson
I'd be surprised by a washout myself, but anything can happen. I think he'll
prepare a washout so that a worst case scenario would yield your predicted
score. My prediction is 7.5-2.5. There are two other factors here though. One
is that he only NEEDS 5.5-4.5 to win. The other is that he knows he'll be under
the spotlight as BGN is sure to milk the publicity for as much as he can. He may
feel obligated to try to maximize the score because of the public attention he
will be receiving. If he does kill the program, I still think that my previous
prediction will come true: that the general public and media will simply
conclude that PCs are still a long way from DB.
Albert
This page took 0 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.