Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 12:42:20 05/02/01
Go up one level in this thread
On May 02, 2001 at 15:06:09, Albert Silver wrote: >On May 02, 2001 at 13:48:04, Chris Carson wrote: > >>I would like to hear from the CCC group how much K will >>gain from having the program for 3 months. In my view, >>an advantage yes, but maybe not as much as I thought at >>first. >> >>1. K may not have the HW for the match. >>2. To get a real feel for Fritz 7 he will need the HW and >> play 40/2 games. > >Yes. No. Getting a powerful dual is well within his means, and you must ask >yourself, just how much stronger DF would get running on an 8-way box. Will the >extra speed be so significant against Kramnik? This isn't a comp-comp match >where a ply's difference is generally decisive. > >>3. K has to prepare for other opponents for matches and >> tournaments, I think this will be a higher priority for K. >>4. K has other commitments than just matches and tournaments that >> will also be a higher priority. > >Whoa.... I don't know about that. How many other commitments on his schedule >have a million dollar purse? The difference between losing and winning is stated >to be at $400,000. I would be enormously surprised if he dismissed that >off-hand. > >>5. K may gain a sense of how Fritz should play at any given time, >> and may be over confident by match time. > >I think that would be to greatly underestimate Kramnik. He isn't Kasparov, and I >have never heard of him arriving overconfident at any event or match. Kasparov >certainly suffered from this affliction, but this would be a new one for >Kramnik. > >> >>None of the above are guaranteed, but in my opinion, lots of games at >>fast time controls is not the same as 40/2 on the real HW. Also, my >>guess is that K will play some each week against what ever version of >>Fritz he gets, but each will be slightly different (ala play different >>versions of crafty with slightly different books) and not the same. > >I understood he was to get a copy of the engine, not the opening book. I doubt >very much he will be relying on the opening book to make his preparations. he is >a master opening strategist as his famous match against Kasaprov showed, and I'm >sure he will rely on his own judgement in this regard. > I will certainly bet that he won't rely on Friedel for opening suggestions or match strategies... :) >> >>Any thoughts. >> >>I do think this gives K a huge advantage, I am just not sure he will >>have the time to fully utilize it. Just some thoughts. ;) >> >>My guess now: K wins 6.5-3.5 with a couple of surprises by both >>and a couple of blunders by both. ;) >> >>Best Regards, >>Chris Carson > >I'd be surprised by a washout myself, but anything can happen. I think he'll >prepare a washout so that a worst case scenario would yield your predicted >score. My prediction is 7.5-2.5. There are two other factors here though. One >is that he only NEEDS 5.5-4.5 to win. The other is that he knows he'll be under >the spotlight as BGN is sure to milk the publicity for as much as he can. He may >feel obligated to try to maximize the score because of the public attention he >will be receiving. If he does kill the program, I still think that my previous >prediction will come true: that the general public and media will simply >conclude that PCs are still a long way from DB. > > Albert
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