Author: Graham Laight
Date: 04:56:49 05/15/01
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On May 15, 2001 at 06:26:14, Ralf Elvsén wrote: >On May 15, 2001 at 06:03:11, Graham Laight wrote: > >I still say it's quicker and easier to draw a graph of strength of players >plotted against proportion of draws. > >Since I don't have a copy of chessbase, the graph below is based on guesswork >rather than actual study - but here's a quick example of what it would probably >look like: > >Percentage Of Draws > > >100 | * > | * > | * > | * > | * >75 | * > | * > | * > | * > | * >50 | * > | * > | * > | * > | * >25 | * > |* > | > | > | >0 | > ------------------------------------------------------ > 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 > > Elo Rating > > Check out this: http://math.bu.edu/people/mg/ratings/Draws.jpg Ralf, Thanks very much for drawing this work to my attention! Since it's done by the chairman of the USCF (home page = http://math.bu.edu/people/mg/ ), I think we can assume that it's a good quality study. The exciting thing (from the point of view of "solving chess" or "playing perfect chess") point of view is that, above 2200 Elo, the proportion of draws shoots up very sharply above 2200 Elo - implying that the limits of chess are being approached quite rapidly now. Just to describe the graph (which you can see for yourself by following Ralf's link above) approximately, the draw proportion starts at 15% (presumably because players are unable to obtain a win), drops to 8% at 650 Elo, rises steadily from there to 25% at 2200 Elo, then shoots up rapidly to 48% at 2700 Elo. This would imply that the limit of chess is less than 3700 (because the graph is rising sharply at the end) - so my original guess (2 posts back) of 3500 was not too bad! -g
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