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Subject: Re: ==> The future 300 GHz machines won't win very impressively either

Author: Miguel A. Ballicora

Date: 22:11:34 05/21/01

Go up one level in this thread


On May 21, 2001 at 07:04:51, Vine Smith wrote:

>On May 21, 2001 at 02:05:10, Miguel A. Ballicora wrote:
>
>>On May 21, 2001 at 01:15:18, Vine Smith wrote:
>>
>>>On May 20, 2001 at 18:53:46, Miguel A. Ballicora wrote:
>>>
>>>>On May 20, 2001 at 14:47:12, Christophe Theron wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On May 20, 2001 at 14:26:15, Vine Smith wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On May 20, 2001 at 13:24:29, Christophe Theron wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On May 20, 2001 at 04:25:41, Frank Phillips wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On May 19, 2001 at 23:48:48, Christophe Theron wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On May 19, 2001 at 23:37:31, Ratko V Tomic wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>I'm extremely surprised that my creature managed to survive more
>>>>>>>>>>> than 30 moves, given a 300 times speed handicap.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>The flip side is that the current programs running at some
>>>>>>>>>>future machines at 300 GHz won't be able to crush the current
>>>>>>>>>>programs on 1 GHz any more convincingly (in terms of how
>>>>>>>>>>many moves the slower machine can hang on) than what happened
>>>>>>>>>>in this matchup.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>This is the same effect that many players have experienced
>>>>>>>>>>when upgrading their hardware to 2-3 times faster one and
>>>>>>>>>>then being disapponted, after all the expense and hopes,
>>>>>>>>>>when they can't even notice any difference in the perceived
>>>>>>>>>>program strength (aginst humans).
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>You are absolutely right.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>I think we are already beginning to experience the effects of dimishing returns
>>>>>>>>>in chess on current hardware at long time controls.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>    Christophe
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Would someone take the time to explain this simply and clearly, to me.  I can
>>>>>>>>understand that if you are already beating humans (or some other group of
>>>>>>>>players) most of the time, then increasing the speed still means you are beating
>>>>>>>>them most of the time and maybe a bit more, but until a machine can see _all_
>>>>>>>>there is to see how would it not improve by seeing more and how can you say
>>>>>>>>(apriori) that it will improve only at a diminishing return?  In other words, I
>>>>>>>>can believe that results against a set of players is aysomtopic, tending towards
>>>>>>>>100 percent, but do see why this is necessarily true of the game played by two
>>>>>>>>otherwiseequally matched entities.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>In my opinion it has to do with the fact that in a given chess position the
>>>>>>>number of moves is limited. Generally you have between 20 and 50 legal moves.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>From these moves, only an even more limited subset does not lead to an obvious
>>>>>>>loss.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>And from this subset there is an even more limited subset of moves (2 or 3
>>>>>>>generally) that can be played, and chosing between them is a matter of
>>>>>>>preference because the amount of computation needed to prove which one is better
>>>>>>>is too big for any computer.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>So once you reach the stage where you can see which 2 or 3 moves are playable,
>>>>>>>it would take an additional huge computation to see further.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>I think some chess programs on current computers at long time controls have
>>>>>>>already reached this stage, and this is why is becomes increasingly difficult to
>>>>>>>say which one is better.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>This is a very simplistic explanation which lacks mathematical support, I know,
>>>>>>>but that's how I explain dimishing returns.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>    Christophe
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Is it possible that there is also a problem with bad evaluations infecting whole
>>>>>>branches in the tree of analysis? In Fritz vs. Gambit Tiger at Leiden, Fritz
>>>>>>played 21.b4, shutting in its queen. Was this not a dreadful move? Yet, I had
>>>>>>Fritz analyze after this point through 18 ply, and the evaluation was just +0.06
>>>>>>(after which it mysteriously halted analysis). And Tiger 14 has reached 20 ply
>>>>>>looking at this same position, with an evaluation of just +0.46 after 21...Nc3
>>>>>>22.Rd3 Qf6 23.Kf1 Ne4 24.Bd4 Qf7 25.Bb2 g5 26.Rde3 Bf4 27.Bxe4 fxe4 28.Rxe4 Rxe4
>>>>>>29.Rxe4 Qxd5 30.Re7. Actually, the final position is lost for White after
>>>>>>30...Qd3+ 31.Re2 Qb1+ 32.Ne1 Bf5, but White doesn't need to play 30.Re7. The
>>>>>>point is that neither program, given even 10-12 hours to think (on a PIII 850)
>>>>>>appreciates the disastrous effects of White's missing queen. As poor evaluations
>>>>>>like this clog up the search, all lines begin to look like one another, despite
>>>>>>huge differences between them that would be clear to any human player examining
>>>>>>these positions.
>>>>>>Regards,
>>>>>>Vine Smith
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>I do not agree.
>>>>>
>>>>>Tiger KNOWS about the bad position of the Queen after b4 and would never play
>>>>>this move.
>>>>>
>>>>>If you try, you will see that Tiger's evaluation is different in the lines the
>>>>>queen is trapped and in the lines it is not.
>>>>>
>>>>>The evaluation difference is not big, but it is enough to avoid such a
>>>>>disastrous move in almost all the cases, and to try to find a way to free the
>>>>>queen if it happens to be trapped by a long sequence of forced moves.
>>>>>
>>>>>Tiger is able to identify some cases of blocked pieces or pieces with poor
>>>>>mobility in its evaluation. In particular, it is able to see that the queen is
>>>>>blocked after b4? and gives a penalty for this. I have worked hard in this part
>>>>>of the evaluation, so I can't let you generalize and say that any program would
>>>>>ignore the consequences of the trapped queen. Mine knows.
>>>>
>>>>Even mine knows :-) Yes, my program sucks but my point is that it is a matter
>>>>of tuning the evaluation, it is now mission impossible.
>>>>
>>>>Vine, I post the results before in case that you miss the post (it is easy
>>>>with so much traffic)
>>>>
>>>>http://www.icdchess.com/forums/1/message.shtml?170629
>>>>
>>>>Regards,
>>>>Miguel
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>    Christophe
>>>Hi --
>>>I did miss it -- thanks for referring me to the message, because I was glad to
>>>finally see an evaluation that more or less matches my perception of the
>>>disastrous nature of 21.b4. I must certainly do some testing with Gaviota, to
>>>see if this positional sense it displays here is reflected in its evaluation of
>>>other positions. Also, Gaviota's preferred 21.Re2 was my first thought when
>>>looking for alternatives to 21.b4. I'm baffled by not only Fritz's choice, but
>>>also the number of programs that think 21.b3 is the best idea here. I don't see
>>>problems with the b-pawn; if there are any, then Crafty's choice of 21.Bc1 has
>>>to be superior to moving the pawn, which just creates additional weaknesses.
>>>Regards,
>>>Vine
>>
>>Gaviota is a *weak* winboard engine in development. If Gaviota can beat fritz in
>>this position, it will prove a point about that the position is disastrous. I
>>can assure you that gaviota will try to keep the queen trapped. I do not have
>>Fritz, otherwise I will try it myself. Gaviota has some kind of learning
>>implemented, so you can even play a match. I believe that the position
>>is so bad that I won't be easy for Fritz...
>>
>>If you want to download it, it is in
>>
>>http://www.msu.edu/~ballicor/gav
>>
>>Regards,
>>Miguel
>>PS: let me know if you try it.
>I downloaded Gaviota right after seeing the evaluation, as I had seen your post
>at the Winboard forum about the new version 2.2, and used that to hop to your
>site.
>Christophe made an interesting point about the scoring of evaluations in a
>parallel thread -- might it actually hurt the program to have this set too high,

I think he is right. In my case I believe that I should decrease this factor. In
some other positions it hurts but I did not change it because now I am working
in the search. When I come back to work on the evaluation this is one thing to
consider.

Regards,
Miguel



>even though the "true" penalty for the trapped queen might be a pawn or more?
>It's a possibility, I suppose, although it makes the interpretation of
>evaluations very difficult if the scoring of such factors is deliberately
>suppressed. How do I tell (if I can't make the determination myself) if a
>program is doing just "pretty good" with an eval of +0.50, and when a program is
>totally winning with the very same eval?
>Matching Gaviota against Fritz here is a great idea -- I will definitely do
>this, since Uri Blass noted that such matches could contribute towards an
>understanding of how much trouble White is (or isn't) in. Since it's clear that
>Gaviota values the queen's immobility highly, Fritz will only be able to
>liberate it with tactical shots due to outsearching, the instances of which
>should not be hard to identify. But I'm not sure that Fritz will be so
>interested in doing that, as its analysis of the position after 21.b4 included
>no attempts to play a4 at any point, and its evaluations certainly didn't
>indicate that it felt there was anything troublesome about its stranded queen.
>I'll keep you updated about the match.
>Regards,
>Vine



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