Author: Don Dailey
Date: 13:33:45 04/22/98
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On April 22, 1998 at 13:57:15, Djordje Vidanovic wrote: >On April 22, 1998 at 13:01:35, Bruce Moreland wrote: > >>Points Score >>0 50% >>100 60% >>200 75% >>300 85% >> >>I've rounded these a little, but they're within a percent or so. >> >>So, if you think DB is 300 points better than micro program X, you'd >>think it would score at least +8 -1 =1 or +7 -0 =3. >> >>bruce > >DB may beat the best micro by 8.5-1.5, or even, 9-1, or, 10-0, but this >does NOT mean that its results against humans will be just as good, and >300 rating points better. I'd venture to say that its hypothetical >results vs humans should not exceed the best micro's results by more >than 100-150 rating points. Thus, we talk of two different things -- DB >may exploit a micro (or chess software)'s weaknesses quite consistently, >but this does not apply to humans who are always prone to mistakes, >errors, etc. Thus, another 'guestimate': DB (approximately) 2700, best >micro (computer software) on a Pentium II / AMD K6 400 Mhz 2550-2600. > >Regards, >Djordje Hi Djordje, This is how I voted. I believe the AVERAGE micro would get consistantly stomped by Deep Blue but we're talking about the very best micro as the poll is worded. I still believe micro's do a LOT of things better but Deep Blue's hardware is awesome. My best guess is that Deep blue is about 150 points better which means it would win even short matches almost every time. However I concede ignorance in this matter. Since this is a guess and nothing more, if it were somehow proved I was off by 100 points in either direction I would not be surprised. By the way, in my opinion there is probably only a small amount of intransitivity between humans and computers. If Deep Blue turns out to be 150 points stronger against the best computers then then I'm guessing (again, just a guess) it will still be AT LEAST 100 points stronger in human play (than the micros.) - Don
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