Author: Andrew Dados
Date: 10:50:58 06/11/01
Go up one level in this thread
On June 11, 2001 at 05:08:00, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote: >Hi all, > >In line of some of the results posted here, I'd like to >make some people aware of the existance of the 'Whoisbetter' >utility. > >It is a program by Steve Maughan (http://home.clara.net/maughan/) >that can aid you in determining whether a certain result has >any statistical meaning. > >It's a bit unfortunate there is little explication of the used >mathematics :( It only says it is based on the binominal distriubtion. >If anyone has an idea on how it could work, please post, as >I will begin working on a similar program but based on other >mathematics soon. > You may try to treat one chess game as two connected binomial events - this model introduces draw scores nicely. However it also reduces 'played games' in your table by 2, so in fact 7-3 becomes a valid 'required score'. This due to fact that now one game score carries more information (as it should) then win-loss. -Andrew- >A little table for those who can't run Windows programs: >The winning program must at least have the 'required' score >to be able to say it is better with standard statistical >significancy. > >Played games Required score >----------------------------------- > 5 5 - 0 > 10 8 - 2 > 15 11 - 4 > 20 14 - 6 > 30 20 - 10 > 50 31 - 19 > 100 59 - 41 > 200 113 - 89 > >So for example, if you play a match between 2 programs and >one scores 7-3, you _can't_ say that the winner is stronger. > >Well, you can, but there are people that are selling rings that >make you live forever, which are proven to work based on the >same kind of highly reliable science. > >-- >GCP
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