Author: Gian-Carlo Pascutto
Date: 11:08:52 06/11/01
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On June 11, 2001 at 13:50:58, Andrew Dados wrote: >You may try to treat one chess game as two connected binomial events - this >model introduces draw scores nicely. > >However it also reduces 'played games' in your table by 2, so in fact 7-3 >becomes a valid 'required score'. > >This due to fact that now one game score carries more information (as it >should) then win-loss. Uhh something is wrong here. Using Peters utility, which, as far as I can tell, provides correct results and takes the draws correctly into account, I confirmed that the numbers in the table are correct as long as all games are decisive. If some games were drawn the reliability seems to go up in all cases, so the numbers in the table can be considered 'safe' values. As far as I can tell your method is false because it assumes a game carries now twice as much information, which is false. -- GCP
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