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Subject: Re: Who is better? Some statistics...

Author: Andrew Dados

Date: 11:32:47 06/11/01

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On June 11, 2001 at 14:08:52, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote:

>On June 11, 2001 at 13:50:58, Andrew Dados wrote:
>
>>You may try to treat one chess game as two connected binomial events - this
>>model introduces draw scores nicely.
>>
>>However it also reduces 'played games' in your table by 2, so in fact 7-3
>>becomes a valid 'required score'.
>>
>>This due to fact that now one game score carries more information (as it
>>should) then win-loss.
>
>Uhh something is wrong here. Using Peters utility, which, as far as I
>can tell, provides correct results and takes the draws correctly into
>account, I confirmed that the numbers in the table are correct as long
>as all games are decisive.
>
>If some games were drawn the reliability seems to go up in all cases,
>so the numbers in the table can be considered 'safe' values.
>
>As far as I can tell your method is false because it assumes a game
>carries now twice as much information, which is false.

Well you need 2 two-state results to combine it into one 3-state result.
So I am pretty sure the assumption above is true.


>
>--
>GCP



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