Computer Chess Club Archives


Search

Terms

Messages

Subject: Re: Who is better? Some statistics...

Author: David Rasmussen

Date: 11:37:22 06/11/01

Go up one level in this thread


On June 11, 2001 at 14:08:52, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote:

>
>Uhh something is wrong here. Using Peters utility, which, as far as I
>can tell, provides correct results and takes the draws correctly into
>account, I confirmed that the numbers in the table are correct as long
>as all games are decisive.

There is no "correct" results. It all depends on how you model the problem. The
simplest would be to assume that the probability of A beating B is constant p.
Then you'll get a polynomial distribution. But this is just one model, and not a
very good one, for real-life purposes. In the case of humans, p is not constant,
but varies with psychological, physiologocal and other factors. Also, if this
bernoulli model with a constant p for one entity was true, chess ratings would
be transitive. But they aren't. A can beat B, who can beat C, who can beat A,
even in the case of computers (or maybe especially in the case of computers). A
model closer to reality would model this behavior more closely.



This page took 0 seconds to execute

Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700

Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.