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Subject: Re: Who is better? Some statistics...

Author: David Rasmussen

Date: 13:08:19 06/11/01

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On June 11, 2001 at 15:45:53, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote:

>On June 11, 2001 at 14:37:22, David Rasmussen wrote:
>
>>There is no "correct" results. It all depends on how you model the problem. The
>>simplest would be to assume that the probability of A beating B is constant p.
>
>Since I'm talking about matching up 2 computers, the probability is
>constant. (discounting learning)
>
>>Then you'll get a polynomial distribution.
>
>>But this is just one model, and not a very good one, for real-life purposes.
>>In the case of humans, p is not constant, but varies with psychological,
>>physiologocal and other factors.
>>Also, if this bernoulli model with a constant p for one entity was true, chess
>>ratings would be transitive. But they aren't. A can beat B, who can beat C,
>>who can beat A, even in the case of computers (or maybe especially in the
>>case of computers). A model closer to reality would model this behavior more
>>closely.
>
>I explicitly spoke about matches between 2 programs. None if this
>is applicable here.
>
>--
>GCP

If you simply want to know who performed best of two engines, then you are
right. But you can conclude anything from that. Certainly not that one is a
better chess player than the other.



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