Author: Gian-Carlo Pascutto
Date: 14:12:07 06/11/01
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On June 11, 2001 at 16:22:02, Leen Ammeraal wrote: >On June 11, 2001 at 13:55:31, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote: >> >>10 - 5 - 0 -> 89,4% chance that A is better >>8 - 3 - 4 -> 92,7% chance >> >>>Would that be discutable, you think? >> >>Appearently it is, as it gives different results. >> > >On second thoughts this seems nonsense to me. >By the way, the probability my program computes is >15.1%, or in your terminology, 100 - 15.1 = 84.9%. > >Consider the simpler example of these two matches: > >1 - 0 1 - 0 >1/2 - 1/2 1 - 0 >1/2 - 1/2 0 - 1 >--------------------------- + > 2 - 1 2 - 1 > >If I were player A, I would be glad with >this score 2 - 1, regardless of which >match applied. Do you still think diffently? Yes. It seems logical to me that a result of 8-3-4 gives more information than one that is (possibly) truncated to 10-5. To turn your example around, the real question is whether you like 1 0 2 better than 2 1 0 (W-L-D). For the player it may be equal, but for determining the probabilty it does not have to be. -- GCP
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