Author: Martin Schubert
Date: 14:33:55 06/11/01
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On June 11, 2001 at 13:36:21, Leen Ammeraal wrote: >On June 11, 2001 at 12:41:19, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote: > >>On June 11, 2001 at 12:20:23, Leen Ammeraal wrote: >> >>>Any comments are welcome. >> >>Peter sent me a similar program which uses a >>trinominal distribution (W-L-D). >> >>Perhaps you should try that, as it's more >>accurate. >> >>-- >>GCP > >Although Peter's program can in many ways be better >than mine, I don't see how it can be more accurate, >that is, as long as we regard, for example, >10-5-0 as equivalent to 8-3-4. As you see, I simply >divide the number of draws by 2 and add the result >to either side. >Would that be discutable, you think? If you do, >which of these two results would you prefer? >Leen I suggest that you calculate some easy probabilities and think again if 10-5-0 is equivalent to 8-3-4. For example 5 games: if only 1 and 0 are possible, then the probability of 5-0 is (1/2)^5. If 1,0,1/2 are possible (with probability 1/3), you have (1/3)^5.
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