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Subject: Re: Who is better? Some statistics...

Author: Peter Fendrich

Date: 03:37:31 06/12/01

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On June 11, 2001 at 15:42:36, Leen Ammeraal wrote:

>On June 11, 2001 at 13:55:31, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote:
>
>>On June 11, 2001 at 13:36:21, Leen Ammeraal wrote:
>>
>>>Although Peter's program can in many ways be better
>>>than mine, I don't see how it can be more accurate,
>>>that is, as long as we regard, for example,
>>>10-5-0 as equivalent to 8-3-4. As you see, I simply
>>>divide the number of draws by 2 and add the result
>>>to either side.
>>
>>It is more accurate simply because it does not have
>>to do that simplification at all!
>>
>>10 - 5 -  0 -> 89,4% chance that A is better
>>8  - 3 -  4 -> 92,7% chance
>>
>
>I had not expected this, and I wonder if someone
>can explain this difference
>
>>>Would that be discutable, you think?
>>
>>Appearently it is, as it gives different results.
>>
>>>If you do, which of these two results would you
>>>prefer?
>
>Yes, my question was unclear. I meant: which would
>you prefer if you were player A (the first one).
>If Peter's program is right, you would prefer
>8 - 3 - 4
>to
>10 - 5 - 0,
>while I would not have any preference. I will think
>about this, but any simple explanation is welcome.
>
>Leen

As a chess player I would regard them as equal. The score is the score and
nothing can change that.
But when I'm putting my bet on the next match between A and B I would rely more
on the first one.
See my answear to Martin:
http://site2936.dellhost.com/forums/1/message.shtml?174751

//Peter



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