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Subject: Re: Pouring oil on the fire

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 20:19:53 06/15/01

Go up one level in this thread


On June 15, 2001 at 22:23:38, Mark Young wrote:

>Nothing more really needs to be said, but you guys can debate more among
>yourselves. To restate no ratings system is absolute the rating numbers be it
>2500 or 3000 mean nothing in themselves. What is important is the difference
>between two ratings in the same ratings pool. Anyone knowing how ratings work
>would never bring the word absolute into the discussion as Bob has done.
>
>Ratings and whichever system is used to calculate the numbers are simply a
>measure of dominance in the ratings pool. If the system is working correctly it
>should be able to predict with a high degree of certainty the outcome of a
>series of games between two players in the same ratings pool. Even if the
>players have never played each other before.
>
>The problem with discussing this issue is some do not understand what ratings
>are, and how they work. As when Bob stated all players in the ratings pool must
>play each other a equal number of times for the rating system to be accurate.
>This is just incorrect. Thing start to become more ridiculous from there.



It is not incorrect.  Go pick up _any_ book on sampling theory and give it a
read.  I gave an example of why your statement above is _wrong_.  Take a group
of 20 players.  players 1-10 play each other all the time.  Players 11-20 play
each other all the time.  Comparing ratings for the 1-10 group will give a very
good prediction of how they will do in a game vs each other.  Same for the
other group.  But then use those ratings to  predict the outcome for player 1
vs player 20.  Won't work.

If you have one player from the first group that plays one player from the
second group a lot, that tries to "couple" the two pools.  But not very well.
However, if _everybody_ plays _everybody_ then you can predict the outcome
of any two players pretty well.

That was what I said.  That is simply fact.

Which means you can not predict ratings for players that played before a formal
rating system was in place.  Any more than you can compare a player of today
with a player from 40 years ago and use their ratings to predict how a game
between them would turn out.

I don't see why this is so hard to follow...



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