Author: Graham Laight
Date: 04:26:10 06/27/01
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On June 27, 2001 at 05:59:05, Dann Corbit wrote: >On June 27, 2001 at 05:48:58, Adam Oellermann wrote: > >><snippety snip> >>>>You are correct Sir. A fly is more intelligent than the biggest computer. >>> >>>This is outdated information. Computer power in a single machine (multiple >>>processors) now exceeds the processing power of a fly. >> >>Yup, and if Moore's Law holds good for a few more decades, we might be able to >>manage a cockroach! However, the software implementation is bound to be buggy... > >Pretty amazing that a bee can do 20 GFlops on a few micrograms of nectar. Be >that as it may: > >http://cart.frc.ri.cmu.edu/users/hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/1999/SciAm.scan.html This article is way too pessimistic in assuming that human intelligence will take until 2050 to achieve. 1. They assume that to do a task a human can do, you need the same amount of processing power. This is ridiculous. Chess computers are, or are nearly, at GM standard with only a tiny, tiny, tiny proportion of the processing power. A cheap chess computer, with a 10 Mhz processor, tiny amount of RAM, and 32k program will easily beat well over 99% of chess players. 2. The article, at 2 years old, is massively out of date. Much of the article discusses the problem of a robot navigating its workspace. For a mere £35,000 a British hospital has just intalled a robot which has solved these problems - see http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_330824.html 3. The article implies that the whole human brain is working as hard as the retina (the 2050 calculation is based on calculating how hard the retina works, weighing it, the multiplying by the weight of the brain). This is again ridiculous. You'll see - by 2025 there will be no aspect of human intelligence that can't be demonstrably outperformed by a machine. -g
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