Author: Andreas Herrmann

Date: 15:56:54 07/03/01

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On July 03, 2001 at 15:08:42, Christoph Fieberg wrote: >Description of the program I developed for simulating the result of a chess game >of two rated players. > >The result of the game depends on the performance factor and a draw factor. > >1.) Performance factor > >The performance factor depends on the rating difference and on the advantage >playing the white pieces. > >In order to determine the performance factor I analyzed nearly 100.000 games of >games with both players 2500+. The distribution for 1-0, Draw, 0-1 was (rounded) >31%-50%-19%. White had a success-rate of 56% (= 31 + 50/2) and Black of 44%. [I >would be happy if this distribution could be validated by others. It has to be >noted that this is an average distribution for players 2500+. On the top level >the success-rate is lower due to a higher number of draws.] > >The average opponent for White and Black had the same rating and therefore the >advantage playing white (if both players have the same strength) is 12%-points >(56-44) what can be expressed as 42 Elo-points (see formula below). Thus, for >calculation purposes White has to be added 21 Elo and Black substracted 21 Elo >in order to consider the advantage playing white. Before some month i calculated an average advantage of 26 ELO (instaed of your 42) for white (from many thousands of real computer games). I read an article long time ago about average advantage ELO for White in human games, where someone calculated a value of 32 ELO. Sorry, today i don't know where it was. I think also, that in human games is the opening advantage a little higher than in computer games. > >The following formula (I think used by FIDE) allows to calculate the performance >based on Elo-difference and vice versa. It is: > >Performance (%) = (1 / (1 + (10 ^ (-difference / 400)))) > Use the above formula only for performance values between 15% and 85%, because lower and higher values got "wrong" results. Better is using an internal ELO table with all values from 1% to 99%. Values between the full percent values, can be interpolated. Before some years i also used your above formula in my rating program. But now i use an internal table, because the calculated values are more exact. Yesterday i had the idea, to make such a tournament simulator. Here my first ideas: Input values to the program: - number of players - ELO and name of each player - tournament mode (swiss, round robin ...) - rounds to play - ELO advantage for white (for excample 26) - average draws in percent (normally about 14%, calculated from many thousands of computer games) - number of tournaments Outputs: - ev. each tournament result in a file - for each player: all reached places ... Andreas http://www.wbholmes.de

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