Author: Dieter Buerssner
Date: 10:26:56 07/04/01
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On July 04, 2001 at 12:00:23, ERIQ wrote:
>I not convinced, what is the chance of equal players playing and one of them
>winning 4 straight I have played only a few comp vs comp matches but have never
>seen a comp win that much even if it was stronger.
If the games were independent (which they are really not because of learning),
and I assume 40% winning chance for white and 30% drawing chance, the
probability is about 3% for this result.
Result of chess matches between equal opponents
White wins 40.0%, black 30.0% and 30.0% draws
A match of 4 games was simulated by 1000000 Monte Carlo tries
result probability <= this > this
2.0 - 2.0 ( 50.0%): 23.288% 23.288% 76.712%
2.5 - 1.5 ( 62.5%): 38.568% 61.856% 38.144%
3.0 - 1.0 ( 75.0%): 25.217% 87.073% 12.927%
3.5 - 0.5 ( 87.5%): 10.079% 97.153% 2.847%
4.0 - 0.0 (100.0%): 2.847% 100.000% 0.000%
I posted the source of the the program, that calculates this some time ago here.
Regards,
Dieter
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