Author: Graham Laight
Date: 04:19:39 07/25/01
We've seen chess programs grow in ability. Now, for 99% of all chess players, the best way for them to select a chess move would be to consult a cheap chess program (unless there's an obvious good move in the position). At some point in the future, the same will be true of any kind of question. Ask a computer, and you'll immediately get a high quality answer - in the format and context that you want it. At this time, the intelligence of computers will indisputably be higher than humans. However - the history of the last 5 million years is that the most intelligent "species" will come to dominate. So will computers take over the management of all major aspects of life on earth? They could either do it in a dramatic way (as has been depicted in many Hollywood films), or they can do it with stealth - taking control so gradually and quietly that we don't notice it's happening. Here are some arguments for the takeover: * horses are about 15x stronger than humans - yet we ride on their backs for fun. This is because the horses don't know what's really going on. To the computers of the future, we'll look like horses * although nearly everyone I speak to always says, "I prefer to be served by a human than a machine", the simple historical reality is that whenever people have a choice between an expensive human or a cheap machine, they've always chosen a cheap machine * people who think that humans will always retain ultimate control overlook the fact that for the last 5 million years humans have been unchallenged in the intelligence stakes - and there's no human experience of this not being true. But in 25-50 years from now, it will be. * legislation to control the limits of machine capability are likely to fail - because machines with intelligence will soon find a way around such legislation Here are some arguments against: * no species other than humans have ever had the vote * people are unlikely to deliberately build a machine that can't be controlled * if the danger of machine takeover becomes apparent, people are likely to legislate barriers to machine capability * if machines start a war against humans, we can build machines to fight back against them What does everybody think about this increasingly important issue? -g
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