Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 13:02:56 07/31/01
Go up one level in this thread
On July 31, 2001 at 15:46:27, William Wentworth wrote:
>Can the level of 3000 or more ELO be reached on multiple processor systems that
>currently exist ?
>Or should we wait till the new crystal-laser processors get commercialized ?
>When will that hardware be available ? Only Japanese ?
>Any estimates about its price ?
3000 ELO is completely meaningless unless you specify precisely the competition.
Against all the kindergarten children in the US, the weakest chess engines have
an ELO of 3000.
If you could get a program that was 3000 ELO FIDE, it would be no different from
one that was 2900 ELO FIDE. A human (besides perhaps Kasparov, Kramnik, Anand)
will have no idea which one he/she is playing because they will lose all the
games.
The number is pretty well meaningless to most people anyway. The only thing
that matters in an ELO rating is the difference between that number and other
numbers in the pool.
If you have a pool of talent that are rated at 2000 ELO on average, and then you
suddenly just give every member 500 ELO, the predictions of the ELO system will
not change at all.
It is completely driven by distance between opponents. The absolute numbers are
actually quite meaningless (e.g. 3000 might be weaker than 2500 if you compare
different pools of talent).
Look at this, where ELO ratings were calculated with an initial assumption of
2300 ELO average:
Program Score % Av.Op. Elo + - Draws
1 TSCP : 30.0/ 36 83.3 2275 2555 83 155 22.2 %
2 Monik : 25.0/ 36 69.4 2289 2432 96 146 11.1 %
3 Storm : 21.5/ 36 59.7 2297 2365 107 112 19.4 %
4 Noonian : 21.0/ 36 58.3 2298 2356 109 78 44.4 %
5 Ozwald : 19.5/ 36 54.2 2300 2330 115 104 19.4 %
6 Zephyr : 19.5/ 36 54.2 2300 2330 115 97 25.0 %
7 LarsenVB : 19.5/ 36 54.2 2300 2330 115 97 25.0 %
8 SnailSCP : 10.0/ 36 27.8 2320 2154 129 93 22.2 %
9 Raffaela : 9.0/ 36 25.0 2322 2132 135 90 22.2 %
10 Golem01 : 5.0/ 36 13.9 2335 2018 237 81 5.6 %
Program Score % Av.Op. Elo + - Draws
1 Freyr : 31.0/ 44 70.5 2292 2443 84 130 13.6 %
2 Cilian : 30.5/ 44 69.3 2293 2434 85 131 11.4 %
3 Sjeng73 : 30.0/ 44 68.2 2293 2426 86 117 18.2 %
4 Faile : 28.0/ 44 63.6 2296 2394 91 102 22.7 %
5 Averno : 25.0/ 44 56.8 2301 2348 99 93 22.7 %
6 SSEchess : 24.0/ 44 54.5 2302 2334 103 90 22.7 %
7 Gully2 : 22.5/ 44 51.1 2304 2312 108 94 15.9 %
8 ColChess : 22.0/ 44 50.0 2305 2305 95 95 22.7 %
9 Chessterfield: 16.5/ 44 37.5 2312 2223 97 92 25.0 %
10 DChess : 16.5/ 44 37.5 2312 2223 123 92 6.8 %
11 NewRival : 12.0/ 44 27.3 2319 2148 126 82 18.2 %
12 Crux : 6.0/ 44 13.6 2331 2011 204 71 9.1 %
Program Score % Av.Op. Elo + - Draws
1 ExChess : 32.0/ 44 72.7 2285 2455 82 126 18.2 %
2 ArasanX : 31.0/ 44 70.5 2287 2438 84 106 27.3 %
3 lambChop : 29.5/ 44 67.0 2289 2412 87 104 25.0 %
4 Ant : 25.5/ 44 58.0 2295 2350 98 97 20.5 %
5 InmiChess3 : 24.0/ 44 54.5 2297 2328 103 86 27.3 %
6 Knightx : 24.0/ 44 54.5 2297 2328 103 106 9.1 %
7 GNUChess4 : 19.5/ 44 44.3 2303 2263 89 101 25.0 %
8 Dragon : 18.5/ 44 42.0 2304 2248 97 98 20.5 %
9 Amyan : 16.0/ 44 36.4 2307 2210 90 91 31.8 %
10 gnuchess : 16.0/ 44 36.4 2307 2210 102 91 22.7 %
11 Fortress : 14.0/ 44 31.8 2310 2178 117 86 18.2 %
12 LDBlanche : 14.0/ 44 31.8 2310 2178 95 86 31.8 %
Program Score % Av.Op. Elo + - Draws
1 LGoliath : 37.0/ 52 71.2 2289 2445 76 99 26.9 %
2 Crafty : 32.0/ 52 61.5 2294 2376 85 77 34.6 %
3 AnMon : 31.5/ 52 60.6 2294 2369 86 83 28.8 %
4 Amy : 28.5/ 52 54.8 2297 2331 93 85 21.2 %
5 SOS : 28.0/ 52 53.8 2298 2325 94 82 23.1 %
6 Bringer : 27.5/ 52 52.9 2298 2318 96 72 32.7 %
7 TCBishop : 27.0/ 52 51.9 2299 2312 97 73 30.8 %
8 Phalanx : 26.5/ 52 51.0 2299 2306 99 74 28.8 %
9 Comet : 24.5/ 52 47.1 2301 2281 62 96 44.2 %
10 Gromit3 : 24.5/ 52 47.1 2301 2281 79 96 25.0 %
11 Gromit2 : 21.5/ 52 41.3 2304 2243 89 88 21.2 %
12 Francesca : 18.5/ 52 35.6 2307 2204 102 82 17.3 %
13 Yace : 18.5/ 52 35.6 2307 2204 87 82 28.8 %
14 ZChess : 18.5/ 52 35.6 2307 2204 108 82 13.5 %
Notice that TSCP is stronger than Little Goliath, Crafty, AnMon, Amy, SOS, etc.
Of course, we all know that is absurd. TSCP is a tiny test program of 50K and
does not even have an opening book, piece list, or a hash table. But it played
in a different pool of talent. Since the pools are segregated, you cannot make
any inference based upon the numbers in the different regions. Only within the
region for which it was calculated.
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