Author: Janosch Zwerensky
Date: 14:03:42 07/31/01
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On July 31, 2001 at 16:43:05, John Dahlem wrote: >>Strangely, if you play enough games, you will eventually play a perfect game >>that would beat Kasparov. > >Is there a way to calculate the chances of such a thing? For every move it must >play the one considered "right" over all other available moves. Chances of that >are what? 1 in a billion, 1 in a trillion? Assuming five "good" moves per position, thirty legal moves total per position, we get a probability of the random player playing a good game over twenty moves of (1/6)^20, which is something like a 1 in 3.7 quadrillion chance. To beat Kasparov, you will probably have to play a good game for substantially more than twenty moves, and probably have to chose among less than five "good" moves on average per position, so the chances of the random player beating Kasparov actually will be a lot smaller than that. Regards, Janosch.
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