Author: Roy Eassa
Date: 16:18:36 07/31/01
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On July 31, 2001 at 15:26:08, Ed Panek wrote: >On July 31, 2001 at 15:24:48, Roy Eassa wrote: > >>On July 31, 2001 at 15:21:17, Ed Panek wrote: >> >>>Lets say I have a move generator that selects a random move every time it is its >>>turn. What are the odds against it drawing/winning a game? Is it less likely >>>than winning a game of Keno with all the correct numbers picked? >>> >> >>Is the opponent Kramnik or Deeper Blue? Or a human rated 400? Or another such >>"random" program? I think this matters. > >Lets try a random opponent first...and then Kramnik > >Ed Obviously, the chance of beating another random-playing program is 50% (not counting draws). The chance of beating Kramnik or another top-notch grandmaster is so small as to be essentially zero. Perhaps one in (ten to the power of 40). What might be most interesting is estimating the chance of beating an extremely weak human player -- I don't know how low ratings go, but say USCF 400. (I have a friend with a 4-year-old daughter who knows the rules of chess but not much more.) Then the question becomes: how much better (or worse?!) than random are that player's moves?
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