Author: Gordon Rattray
Date: 06:08:08 08/01/01
Go up one level in this thread
On July 31, 2001 at 22:35:26, Christophe Theron wrote: >On July 31, 2001 at 19:18:36, Roy Eassa wrote: > >>On July 31, 2001 at 15:26:08, Ed Panek wrote: >> >>>On July 31, 2001 at 15:24:48, Roy Eassa wrote: >>> >>>>On July 31, 2001 at 15:21:17, Ed Panek wrote: >>>> >>>>>Lets say I have a move generator that selects a random move every time it is its >>>>>turn. What are the odds against it drawing/winning a game? Is it less likely >>>>>than winning a game of Keno with all the correct numbers picked? >>>>> >>>> >>>>Is the opponent Kramnik or Deeper Blue? Or a human rated 400? Or another such >>>>"random" program? I think this matters. >>> >>>Lets try a random opponent first...and then Kramnik >>> >>>Ed >> >> >>Obviously, the chance of beating another random-playing program is 50% (not >>counting draws). > > >It depends how is programmed the random opponent. > >If the opponent just picks a move at random, odds are 50%. > >If the opponent is a program that does some sort of of alpha beta on a tree >where the leaves receive random numbers, this opponent will win very often. > >That means: a random evaluation function is much stronger than a program >choosing a move at random. Do you assume that a move leading immediately to checkmate, stalemate, etc. returns a meaningful (non-random) value? If not, I don't understand why your claim holds true? I assume a "random evaluation function" to be random for *all* positions. Gordon > >This does not answer your question but probably gives food for thoughts about >what randomness means, or is good for. :) > > > Christophe > > > > > > >>The chance of beating Kramnik or another top-notch grandmaster is so small as to >>be essentially zero. Perhaps one in (ten to the power of 40). >> >>What might be most interesting is estimating the chance of beating an extremely >>weak human player -- I don't know how low ratings go, but say USCF 400. (I have >>a friend with a 4-year-old daughter who knows the rules of chess but not much >>more.) Then the question becomes: how much better (or worse?!) than random are >>that player's moves?
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