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Subject: Re: Future Processor Wish - Mega-Multiprocessors!

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 21:37:32 08/10/01

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On August 10, 2001 at 16:28:11, Vincent Diepeveen wrote:

>On August 09, 2001 at 22:09:29, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On August 09, 2001 at 20:41:30, Vincent Diepeveen wrote:
>>
>>>On August 08, 2001 at 12:50:07, Graham Laight wrote:
>>>
>>>>I don't think that xx86 --> Pentium range makes a good choice for computers with
>>>>(very) large numbers of processors. IMO, large numbers of processors represents
>>>>the best future option for increasing computer power in a cost-effective way.
>>>
>>>Have to disagree directly. No one can afford so many processors,
>>>so much transport costs, so many risks, such a big power bill.
>>>
>>>Easier is a single processor being way faster and pressed cheaply
>>
>>The math doesn't work.  For any single processor you build, I will take
>
>The math works perfectly for what i said.
>
>For intel or AMD it's easier to press 1 unit and sell it for 1000 dollar
>than it is to press 2 units with a complex bridge in between and sell
>it for 1000 dollar.
>
>That math will always be the same whatever statement you make.

That math is nonsensical however.  For _any_ chip you can "press" I can
connect two for little more than the price of both chips.  In fact, a
dual MB costs less than two complete motherboards.

So for _any_ processor you will ever be able to build, I can spend only
2X (or a bit less) and go twice as fast.  You will _never_ be able to
take a chip to 2x faster for only 2x the initial cost.  It will be
thousands of times that expensive, and you have to spread it over a bunch
of chips to make it bearable.  And the dual will always be twice as fast
still.




>
>For a manufacturer making a faster processor is smarter than making
>the current sucking chip parallel.

That is simply nonsense to anyone doing silicon design.  Why do you think
they are doing 2-way superscalar?  3-way superscalar?


>
>Of course we as end users will keep on buying duals, that's a
>different discussion which has nothing to with it here.
>
>The question whether in future we will see very cheap 16 processor
>shared memory machines, that's very doubtful.

It will happen.  a 4-way machine is now very affordable.  10 years ago it
would be horribly expensive.  In 5 years there will probably be 4-way chips,
rather than 4-way motherboards.




>
>Way more logical is a 16 times more powerful CPU!

Ask any engineer about the cost of that 16 times more powerful CPU.  And
how many years it will take to produce it, compared to a 16-way machine
based on today's readily available chips.  No contest at all.  Which has
_always_ been why SMP machines are built.  Cost-effectiveness, not anything
else...






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