Author: Uri Blass
Date: 01:00:03 08/11/01
Go up one level in this thread
On August 11, 2001 at 00:30:06, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On August 09, 2001 at 16:13:32, K. Burcham wrote: > >> >> >>some here say that most GMs are not super GMs. >>some here say that there are very few super GMs. >>some here say that the super GM plays on a different level than a GM. >>so i guess that i can safely say that this is a match between a program >> and a super GM, kramnik. >> >> >>i have heard all of the opinions here on programs "are GM level", >> "are not GM level". >> >>so what will everyone say if fritz draws one game against this >> "super GM"? >> >>what if fritz draws two games against this super GM? >> >>what if fritz draws three games against this super GM? >> >>what if kramnik barely wins the match? >> >>what if fritz wins one game? >> >>what if fritz wins two games? >> >>what if fritz wins three games? >> >>what if kramnik has a difficult time with this program? >> >>what if you are analyizing the games as they are played, and you discover >> that the program is capable of holding the score close to zero >> during most of the games against this super GM? >> >>what will you say if you experience any of these conditions? >> >>hey but maybe kramnik will make it simple for some of us and just dominate >> the match, easily outscoring the program in every game. >> >>kburcham > > >I've said this before. In my opinion: > >(1) if fritz wins the match, I will certainly have to re-think my position about >whether computers are GM or not. > >(2) if Kramnik wins the match, we won't know a thing. He could win it 8-0 >or he could win it 4.5-3.5, neither of which says a thing, really. He might >take every obvious draw waiting on that one mistake that allows an easy win. >Then he would coast the rest of the way with draws and we would not know much >other than he is better. A lot better or a little better would be impossible >to judge (IMHO). > >(3) if the match is drawn, it will be hard to draw a conclusion. I haven't >seen the match specifics about the prize fund, but if I had to choose between >the following three options: > >(1) lose the match and win 400K; > >(2) draw the match easily and win 700K; > >(3) try to win the 1M prize but take chances that might lead to case (1) > >Then I might go for (2). Or I might say "hell with it" and just take the 400K >and run like the wind. That is a _lot_ of money. To go for case (3) is going >to take a lot of courage. A lot of courage only if kramnik believes that Deep Fritz is a super GM. If kramnik plays a match of 8 games against a GM with rating of 2550 or even 2600 or 2650 he is not going to be afraid to go for case 3. He can be almost sure of winning the match. I see it differently. I expect kramnik to do the best that he can. I believe that he believes that he can defeat the computer and get better result than 4.5-3.5 or 5-3 and I expect him to try to do his best even after winning. Every result of Deep Fritz that is at least 25% is going to be a good result for Deep Fritz and another evidence for me that Deep Fritz is a strong GM. 25% against kramnik is a performance of almost 2600 and if Deep fritz can get this performance under these conditions it means that under normal conditions it can do better. Kramnik can get printout of Deep Fritz7's games in order to learn the program. I am not sure if he can get the program He is not going to get the opening book but he is going to get a lot of information. I expect Deep Fritz's performance against kramnik to be between 2500 and 2600 because of this reason. I do not believe that kramnik is going to be happy with draws after winning one game because I believe that winning the match with less games is better for kramnik. If kramnik win the first game and draw 7 games then he has to work hard (8 games) in order to win the match. If kramnik wins games 1,3,4 and draw games 2,5,6 then he wins the match with 6 games so he can get the same money and invest less time. winning games 1,3,4,5 and drawing game 2 is winning the match with only 5 games that is even better for kramnik. I am going to count the games only until kramnik gets at least the 4.5 that he needs I believe that every result that force kramnik to play at least 6 games is not a bad result for Deep fritz. 5-1 or 4.5-1.5 are the results that I expect only 4.5-.5 or 5-0 for kramnik are going to be a bad result for Deep Fritz. I believe that kasparv had chances to get 4.5-.5 or 5-0 against deeper blue if he could get the program except opening book or even only a printout of deeper blue's games with the evaluation of it and a commercial version of deeper blue that is almost at the same level before the match. Uri
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