Author: Uri Blass
Date: 08:41:56 08/29/01
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On August 29, 2001 at 10:41:45, Robert Hyatt wrote: > > >If you _really_ believe that DF/DJ are better than DB of 1997, you are >going to somehow have to overcome the following problems with that stand: > >1. We _know_ that DT played at a 2650+ level. Here is an excerpt from an >email sent to me by Hsu: >This is in the book draft that you have. The best 25-game performance was over >2655. The USCF rating was much lower, because the first 20 games in DT's >career, which include the disasters in early phase of the US OPen, had four >times the weighting of the last 35 or so games in DT's career. This is >so because DT's first official rating after 20 games was well over 2400, >and the subsequent games therefore had only 1/4 weight. This is somewhat >illogical, but DT was an unusual case to begin with. If all the games had >the same weighting, then DT's USCF rating would have been over 2600, even with >the disasters included. > --FH > > >So the 1992 (roughly) version of the program, made using 3 micron ASICS, >was at _least_ as strong as either deep fritz or deep junior on today's >hardware. I will be conservative and say they are "equal". > >We know that in 1992 they were running at around 1M-2M nodes per second, >which is roughly what DF/DJ will do on an 8-way box. We also know their >actual results against a bunch of GM players in multiple tournaments and >matches hit a best of 2655 over _25_ consecutive games (not 25 cherry-picked >games). > >2. The final DB machine was based on .6 micron ASICS. That is, each chip >contains 25X as many logic circuits as the original 3.0 micron processors (if >you reduce the width and length by 5, area is decreased by 25. So the final >DB2 chips had 25X as many circuits. And we also know that 2/3 of the final >chip was in evaluation. And being generous, 50% of the first chip was eval >since he said "it is now up to 2/3 of the total chip area" which suggests that >DT's chip was not nearly as sophisticated in the evaluation. > >Now let's do the math. The new DB2 chip has about 50X as much evaluation >circuitry as did deep thought. The new DB2 machine was over 200X faster than >deep thought. The original deep thought was at _least_ as strong as today's >best programs. > >Conclusion: If DB 2 had 50X as much "smarts", plus was 200 times faster, do >you _really_ conclude that DB2 is weaker than Frita or Junior? _really_? There >is no way the math will support such a statement. > >A 200X faster DT would have been quite strong (that was basically what DB1 was >all about in fact, more speed, but not a lot more smarts). A 200X faster, and >a 50X smarter program sure seems, at least to me, to be significantly beyond >anything running today on PC hardware or even on supercomputers. > >How do you counter those arguments, each of which is technically accurate and >given by Hsu's publications or email that I have supplied. > >To say that DF/DJ is stronger is absolutely nonsensical... with nothing to >support such a conclusion whatsoever... I believe that the rating of 1992 cannot be compared with the rating of today so we cannot use the results of deep thought against humans to learn that deep thought was at the same level that Fritz is today. I believe that today humans know better how to play against computers relative to their knowledge many years ago and I expect Deep Fritz also to get more than 2650 against humans. I also doubt the claim that Deeper blue was 100 times faster and smarter than deep thought. My impression based on the some analysis of the logfiles is different. I did not give programs hours to analyze every position that Deeper blue pondered and I may change my opinion if a comparison between the logfiles and analysis of top programs can show me that deeper blue is really at least 100 times faster than part of the top programs in significant number of positions. In most positions we cannot compare because of different main lines but I expect that we can compare at least in 10% of the positions and it is going to give us significant number of positions. Uri
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