Author: Christophe Theron
Date: 21:50:26 08/31/01
Go up one level in this thread
On August 31, 2001 at 21:24:11, Dann Corbit wrote:
>On August 31, 2001 at 19:14:12, Jorge Pichard wrote:
>
>>After a successful 1st place at the WMCCC for Amir with his excellent program
>>Deep Junior and for Stefan Meyer with Shredder 5.32, it must be hard to admit
>>that when pitted against Gambit Tiger II in a series of 40 games such as in the
>>SSDF, Gambit Tiger II is proving to be stronger than both when using comparable
>>Hardwares.
>
>I think that Amir Ban and Stefan Meyer-Kahlen are very computer saavy. They
>both know a lot about mathematics and how computer contests work. I would be
>very much surprised if they feel any turmoil when something unsurprising like a
>run of SSDF games occurs.
>
>On the other hand, I imagine that they feel great consternation about other
>people's [customer's] unrealistic expectations in connection with these
>contests. Only one program can top the SSDF. And yet, when you look at the
>error bars, any of the top three or four programs are really equivalent. Only
>one program can win the WMCCC [in a given category] and yet the error bars are
>so enormous that we really don't know which program is stronger. Customers, on
>the other hand, will make a leap not connected with reality and jump to
>conclusions not based upon facts from these measures.
>
>Therefore, while I doubt very much if they are surprised or even concerned about
>results in any public experiment (unless a serious problem turns up -- but I
>have never seen one) I suspect that they are concerned about public perception
>of these events.
>
>The event and public perception of the event are related but separate.
>There may be some feelings stirring when they see an event turning sour due to a
>bad run of probability. But these feelings will be in connection with the
>misunderstandings that will be connected with the event, and not with the event
>itself.
>
>No amount of verbage will educate the great masses of people who view the
>events. That's because they think they already understand them, and even more
>so, because the underlying mathematics are entirely uninteresting to them.
>
>It may seem like a fine distinction, but in reality it is a very large
>distinction.
You are damn right.
Nevertheless, I still prefer to be ranked high on the SSDF than to be ranked
high in a lottery.
But if I ever win a lottery, I'll shout loud that I did. So I would not blame
Amir or Stefan if they do it as well. :)
That's the game, I fear. Play with ignorance, you are rewarded. Try to educate,
you are lynched.
Christophe
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